Joel Kotkin: Elite arrogance is fuelling the rise of the global right

In a way not seen since the days of Ronald Reagan, Margaret Thatcher and Brian Mulroney, the right is on the march. Donald Trump’s victory Tuesday was the signature event, but also reflective of an already mounting political shift. So, too, are the rising figures in supposedly progressive western Europe including France’s Marine Le Pen, Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, Britain’s Nigel Farage and the Netherlands’ Geert Wilders.

In Canada, Pierre Poilievre seems likely to take over in Ottawa, promising policies to curb the rising cost of living and control immigration, presented with less stridency and ridicule than Trump. This is not a shift, as often suggested by the elite press, towards some form of authoritarianism. The Trump, Poilievre and European Union rightists may have supporters from the extreme edges of the traditional right wing, but they for the most part represent a reflexive urge to preserve liberal society and basic values like merit, equal justice and accountability.

In all these societies, entrenched elites who largely control education, mainstream media and the bureaucracy resent being told that their expertise does not make them sovereign. The instinct of the syndicate, blob or any name you choose is to defend their privilege by labelling their opponents as “far right,” associating non-believers with fascism and Hitler, as was done ad nauseam with Trump. Yet you can’t dismiss over half of Americans, or the strong pluralities behind Poilievre or any of the other rising figures, as extremists any more than suggesting politicians like Trudeau and Kamala Harris are communists, as Trump sometimes stupidly suggests.

By labelling the GOP as “a party of prigs and pontificators,” Bret Stephens of the New York Times maintains, Democrats see their defeat as reflecting a nation steeped in racism and misogyny. Yet, polls suggest repeatedly that two issues — cost of living and immigration — are almost always on top. As in the United States, immigration has become a top concern across the EU as well as Canada.

As governments seem to have lost control of their borders, voters want them back. According to Gallup, the percentage of Americans who wish to reduce immigration has soared from under 40 per cent in 2022 to 55 per cent in 2024. CBS polling from June shows that roughly 60 per cent of Americans support mass deportations, and this includes a majority of Latinos. A similar shift of opinion has occurred in Europe, despite the EU’s generally lax migrant policy.

Of course, controlled immigration remains a huge asset, and in low-birthrate countries, indispensable. But the movement of populations with few controls, sometimes with criminal or terrorist ties, as well as people unlikely to support themselves seems essentially self-destructive. Given time, many may lift themselves up but, in the process, burden the society for years, particularly threatening the gains of already established immigrants.

The lax border enforcement of progressives, instead of promoting immigration, has helped undermine its support. This has sparked a powerful shift to conservative parties, almost always labelled far right to distinguish them from the respectable, globalist, libertarian right that has largely evaporated. This can be seen in Europe. Viktor Orbán, the bête noire of progressive Europe, now has company in the form of Italy’s Meloni and perhaps future French president Le Pen.

It has also nurtured a surge of rightist and also far-right sentiment in Germany, where refugee populations are soaring, as well as in Austria. Even famously liberal countries like Denmark are mandating integration, openly seeking to break up immigrant-dominated neighbourhoods.

In the U.S., Latinos, the largest minority, now favour less immigration and even deportations. They know instinctively — the Congressional budget office confirms — their incomes are most under threat from the new crop of refugees. Not surprisingly, a record percentage of Latinos, 46 per cent, supported the immigrant-bashing Trump. In England we see a similar transformation: the new hardliners have found a Tory leader, Kemi Badenock, herself from a Nigerian immigrant family, who is particularly strong on immigration controls and anti-woke cultural stances.

The other key factor for conservative gains has been the economy. Conditions for aspiring middle-income people and the working class, particularly the young, have deteriorated, ravaging their prospects of homeownership.

Some of this can be traced to policies pushed by the green movement, deeply embedded in all progressive parties. This includes advocacy for an agenda that threatens many working-class jobs, raises electricity and pushes home prices upward. It also leaves the West at the mercy of the worst authoritarian regimes, from Iran and Saudi Arabia to Russia and Venezuela. Europe’s tottering economy, in particular, suffers from high energy prices and a diminishing industrial base, in large part due to green policies. Since 2008, Europe’s economy has grown at less than one-third the rate of the U.S. Canada, as well, has been a consistent under-performer.

For example, to meet utopian “net zero” standards, Europe seems, as one observer put it in 2020, to have embraced “energy suicide.” In large part due to high energy prices, Germany, the economic linchpin of the EU, is now at risk of losing much of its industrial base, notably in chemicals and the auto sector, including its vaunted smaller mid-sized firms. Even Volkswagen, creaking under EV mandates, is planning layoffs and plant closures.

Under such conditions, it’s no surprise that working-class Germans are backing conservative, even reactionary parties opposed to EV mandates and high energy prices. Farmers across the EU also are in rebellion against draconian policies directly threatening their livelihoods. They are reacting with protests against Brussels’ attempt to save the planet by reducing the use of critical fertilizers and culling thieir herds.

The left and their green allies will cast all these protesters as fascists of the “far right,” but just a decade ago many were voting for mainstream left-of-centre parties, including Obama and Biden. Who’s really to blame? Maybe we should look more at the unpopular policies, usually adopted without legislative approval, that threaten the daily life of most, while the rule-makers live as enlightened despots with extraordinary privilege.  For them a change of direction is unthinkable and immoral; their opponents can only be inspired by racism or the lure of fascism, as was was repeated endlessly in the last stages of the Harris campaign.

The immediate reaction by the cognitive elites to Trump’s win was predictable, with claims it will do everything from undermine Canada’s economy to create an authoritarian world, ruled by unenlightened realpolitik. But they may, chastened by Trump’s triumph, rethink their climate policies and embrace of unrestricted immigration; even the dullest of wits, Justin Trudeau, is admitting some changes are needed, at least on immigration. In her drive for the White House, Harris was forced to back away from these unsaleable positions.

But the people cannot be fooled forever by the feints of their betters. Backed against a wall, threatened economically, attacked as culturally Neanderthalic “garbage” and wannabe Nazis, they have slapped back at their tormentors. Essentially, it’s the arrogance of the elites that gave us Trump and his doppelgangers, but all of us will have to live with the consequences.

National Post