Multiple battles in Maharashtra

With the Election Commission of India (ECI) scheduling assembly elections on November 20, political parties in Maharashtra have a relatively small window to finalise seat deals, decide candidates, and run campaigns, though the state has been in poll mode since the time of the general elections in May-June. Leaders have been travelling extensively while the Eknath Shinde government has been large-hearted with welfare schemes and freebies, among them toll-free travel on the Mumbai highway. The maths of the pre-poll sops will complicate the state’s fiscal situation, but that’s the least of worries for the ruling dispensation — and the Opposition — in a polity still in churn.
On the face of it, state politics is polarised along two seemingly stable coalitions, which, ironically, are alliances of convenience. The two alliances and their constituent parties that contested the 2019 assembly elections saw major realignments and splits as a dispute raged over who got to be the chief minister (CM) after the results. The BJP and Shiv Sena, allies that bonded over Hindutva in the 1990s, had an acrimonious break-up, with the latter ending up in the Congress-Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) camp. Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray’s stint as CM of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), a coalition that included the Congress and the NCP, was short-lived as his party split, with a section under Shinde returning to the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance’s local variant, the Mahayuti. Sharad Pawar’s NCP too split and a faction under Ajit Pawar joined the Mahayuti. Parallel to this realignment of parties/factions, there has been a churn in caste relations with the Marathas mobilising for Other Backward Classes (OBC) status. The beneficiary of this churn in the parliamentary polls was the MVA, which won 30 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats in the state.
The MVA may be eyeing a repeat. But the Haryana results have energised the BJP and the Mahayuti. The good monsoon may limit anti-incumbency in Vidarbha and Marathwada. A counter-mobilisation of OBCs is expected in reaction to the Maratha mobilisation under Manoj Jarange-Patil. On another plane, this election is an existential battle for survival for the two Senas and its leaders. For Sharad Pawar, a pivotal figure in Maharashtra politics, this election is about pride, respect, and legacy. A win in Maharashtra will boost the Congress’s claim that the party is on the mend. But if the BJP wins, it can assure itself, and everyone else, that the June dip in seats was just a blip.